Donald Trump will be the first person to tell you that he’s the runaway frontrunner for the GOP nomination. Yet, despite this, he’s attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis mercilessly, clearly doing everything he can to prevent him from jumping into the race.
A new CBS News/YouGov poll seems to explain why Trump is trying so hard to stop DeSantis despite his substantial lead in GOP primary polls.
In the poll, voters were first asked to choose which candidates they were considering supporting for the Republican nomination, giving them the freedom to select as many or as few as they wanted — a fair thing to do, considering it is still early in the process and more candidates may enter the race. But, voters were then asked to choose only one candidate whom they would vote for at present. This is actually a very good method, as voters often have an open mind in the primaries and gradually narrow down their choices to just one candidate.
Obviously, between these two categories, Trump is in the lead. He not only has the support of the majority of Republican voters at this point, but he also has a substantial number of people considering him as a potential candidate, extending his support beyond his current supporters to those who might still vote for him. Additionally, he has a higher percentage of the votes of those who are considering him than any other candidate.
But that doesn’t mean Trump has the nomination in the bag. According to the poll, only 24% of GOP primary voters are considering only Trump at this point, while 27% are not considering him at all. The bulk of Trump’s support comes from the 49% of GOP primary voters who would consider Trump or another candidate. This means that much of the support Trump has right now comes from uncommitted GOP primary voters who won’t necessarily support him later on.
In our latest poll on GOP primary, we go beyond the horserace, estimating % of voters even considering various names at this early stagehttps://t.co/tJPAiy1D3q
Enables exploration of who may be persuadable, who wants to hear more about candidates, and what could change...
1/3 https://t.co/xBqzz5s6Lc pic.twitter.com/788HOhAzeu
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) May 2, 2023
There’s no doubt that Trump is the best positioned of any GOP primary candidate, but the number of persuadable GOP primary voters and those not considering Trump is actually larger than those only considering Trump at this point. “This would indicate the primary is very much in flux with no presumptive nominee (yet), despite what Trump’s lead on the topline indicates,” observes G. Elliott Morris, senior data journalist and U.S. correspondent for The Economist.
If you’re into political betting, you may still gamble on Trump winning the nomination, and that might even be a safe bet, but these numbers tell us why Trump is attacking DeSantis more than Joe Biden these days. He must know that his lead in the polls isn’t guaranteed, and the best chance he has to stay ahead is for DeSantis not to enter the race.
via pjmedia