Most conservatives who would prefer to see a different Republican presidential nominee in 2024 are hoping and praying that Donald Trump makes things easier for his party by simply choosing not to run again. But there would be a number of benefits to his making another presidential bid — as long as he loses the Republican primary.
Earlier this week, Charles Cooke made the case that there are plenty of viable, fighting, conservative candidates whom the party could nominate in 2024, so there would be no reason to risk another Republican defeat by renominating Trump. Thus, I will refrain from restating the substantive argument against Trump. But it’s important to consider the two scenarios under which Trump is not the 2024 nominee: Either he chooses not to run, or he runs and loses.
The first scenario is by far the preferred one for most Republicans and conservatives who would like to see the party move on from Trump. It’s clean and the most direct way to avoid another Trump nomination. Were he to run again, he would become the instant front-runner, whereas he obviously cannot win a nomination if he does not run.
Trump’s running would mean months of relitigating his grievances from the 2020 election in addition to generating new controversies. Given his track record of turning the base against anybody who challenges him — even conservatives in previously good standing — a Trump run could mean decapitating a whole new generation of Republican talent. Or, forcing many potential candidates to wait until 2028, when circumstances may not be as ripe for a Republican victory.
Even if Trump loses, the story may not end there. He could claim the primary was rigged, keep attacking the nominee throughout the fall, and turn off much of the base ahead of the general election.
Having said all that, it’s worth considering some of the benefits of his running — and losing the primary.
To start, it’s no secret why Trump is so effective at getting so many Republicans to clap like trained seals. Trump has demonstrated an incredible amount of allegiance among the Republican base, and any Republican who wants a future in politics is reticent to risk alienating those voters.
Thus, even if Trump does not run, he will cast a shadow on the 2024 election. Any viable Republican candidates will be eagerly jockeying for his approval in the primary. Whether or not he still holds the amount of sway over the party’s voters that he once did, no ambitious candidate will be willing to risk being overly critical of him. And in the general election, that candidate will have to strike a delicate balance between appeasing Trump and appealing to a broader electorate. While Governor Glenn Youngkin was able to walk this tightrope in Virginia, it will be a lot harder for Trump to avoid the national spotlight than it was for him to steer clear of a gubernatorial race in a state he lost badly.
However, were another Republican to defeat Trump, it would disrupt this entire narrative. Suddenly, somebody else will have shown that it’s possible for a Republican to go up against Trump, and not only survive, but win. Or, to put it in the immortal words of pro wrestler Ric Flair, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man.”
A primary would also provide a built-in opportunity for the eventual nominee to create some distance from Trump in the general election. Any attempts to link the nominee to Trump will fail because the nominee will have just come off a bitter primary against Trump. When asked to respond to anything Trump says or does, the candidate could simply wave away the question by pointing out that differences with Trump were spelled out during the primary and emphasizing that it’s now time to focus on his or her own vision for leading the country.
While some argue that a divisive primary would spill over to the general election, there is also a flip side to this argument. Barack Obama ultimately benefited from his protracted primary against Hillary Clinton in 2008, because he gained experience and it left him better prepared. He was a significantly stronger and more seasoned candidate by the summer of 2008 than when he first announced his campaign in early 2007. Any Republican who survives a primary with Trump would be much more prepared for any general-election matchup.
Also, despite the likelihood that Trump would claim any election he loses was rigged, it will be much harder to pull off in a primary. It’s much easier to convince Republican voters that there were shenanigans going on in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Atlanta than it would be to argue that Republican-controlled primaries in states such as Iowa and South Carolina were somehow fixed to steal the election from him. Having chosen another candidate, the base would likely have much less patience for attempts by Trump to sabotage the nominee and help the Democrats keep the White House.
But there is a more fundamental reason that it would be good for Trump to lose a primary. If the rise of Trump has taught us anything, it’s that the direction of the GOP will not be driven by party bosses, prominent media figures, or any other elites. It will be ultimately determined by the people. Until Trump is defeated among a Republican electorate, he will still command an enormous amount of influence within the party. Trump’s loss to another Republican at the ballot box is the only way for Republicans to truly move on.
via nationalreview