The Washington Post cast doubt on its own poll with ABC that showed former President Trump up by 10 points over his likely rival President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential contest.
Trump leads Biden 52% to 42% in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to the Post. The outlet suggested that, given other polling showing a closer race, its own poll is “probably an outlier” and appeared to cast doubt on the sample.
“The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat,” the Post wrote. “The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”
Trump is up 3 points and Biden down 2 points from an ABC/Post poll conducted in February, ABC reported. Based on these incremental shifts, ABC concluded that the change in the most recent poll is “not statistically significant.”
The poll further showed significant dissatisfaction among Democrats around the prospect of Biden as the Democrat presidential nominee, with 3 in 5 Democrat and Democrat-leaning independents indicating they would prefer someone other than Biden as the nominee, according to the Post. There was no strong consensus among respondents as to whom, other than Biden, that candidate might be.
The most popular candidate aside from Biden was “just someone else,” followed by Vice President Kamala Harris and Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont both at 8%.
On net, 48% of respondents found that, in retrospect, they approved of Trump’s presidency, compared to 49% who disapproved, according to the Post. This approval rating for Trump’s presidency is tied for the highest approval point in the Washington Post-ABC poll’s history regarding Trump’s presidency, and exceeds his low 38% approval rating in January 2021, following the events of Jan. 6, according to the ABC/Post poll.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 15-20, had a sample size of 1,006 randomly selected adults contacted on landlines and cell phones. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5%.