Polling on political races has had a mixed track record recently.
The establishment media has earned a reputation for pushing fake news to support their preferred narratives. Because of this, there is widespread suspicion that reported poll numbers are more about manipulating public opinion, rather than merely documenting it.
Polling needs to at least somewhat reflect reality to remain credible. As such, polling data can be useful to gauge shifts in the battlespace of upcoming elections. The results of a recent poll should be panicking Biden’s re-election campaign team.
In the 2024 presidential race, new results show Biden losing in head-to-head contests, not only to Donald Trump but to two other potential GOP nominees as well: Nikki Haley and Tim Scott.
Haley is the former governor of South Carolina. She also earned foreign policy experience while acting as Trump’s United Nations ambassador.
Scott is currently serving as one of South Carolina’s U.S. senators.
The poll of 2,103 registered voters released Monday was done by Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies, the Harris Poll and HarrisX. The poll was “weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.”
IHeart provided a summary of the poll results, which was conducted between September 12 and September 14.
Both Trump and Haley are projected to beat Biden by four percent: 44 percent for Trump to 40 percent for Biden, compared to 41 percent Haley to Biden’s 37 percent.
Scott leads Biden by two, 39 percent to 37 percent.
What is curious about this poll is how much better Haley and Scott performed against Biden versus how they are faring in the Republican primary.
Haley did get a boost in positive ratings after the first Republican debate in August, which saw her net favorability rise 13 percent.
Scott actually lost 5 percent off his favorability at that event.
The September 18 Harvard CAPS Harris Poll showed Trump as the choice of 57 percent of Republican voters, with Haley at only 6 percent, and 2 percent for Scott.
Among all voters polled, 55 percent expect Trump will be the Republican nominee. Among GOP voters, 78 percent expect Trump will be their candidate.
Haley and Scott aren’t even the GOP front runners if Trump drops out. They come in at fourth and fifth place, behind Ron DeSantis (23 percent), Vivek Ramaswamy (22 percent) and Mike Pence (12 percent).
If Trump does win the nomination, perhaps Haley or Scott could bring their theoretical electability to the ticket as vice president.
Trump did recently state he liked the concept of a female vice president, which might boost Haley’s chances.
Still, it’s wild that any poll could show two relatively unknown candidates beating Biden at this point.
Perhaps a clue to the thinking behind those numbers could be found in the results of the poll’s questions about Biden’s mental faculties, with 58 percent indicating “I have doubts about his fitness” and 69 percent agreeing that Biden is “showing he is too old” to be president.
The trend detected by this polling may become “Anyone but Biden.”
If that is the case, Biden is doomed.